Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 09, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD continues to retrace and be bearish but the overall trend is up. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may attempt a swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7515 and around any of the key Fib levels. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7550 and 0.7565.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved higher and been bullish. The EURGBP has moved above recent swing highs and the bearish moving averages are tightening and could cross bullish, signalling that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous swing highs at 0.8765 and 0.8750 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The UK election result has been announced. The purpose of the election was to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity but this has not happened. There is concern that a government coalition creates more political and economic uncertainty. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
UK Manufacturing data will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the British Prime Minister around 0700-0900 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has moved below the horizontal channel support area at 1.1205 but price has not attempted much of a bearish move lower. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and highs and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the EURUSD could start down-trending. Price action has also formed a bearish channel. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 1.1205, around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved much lower and has been very bearish. The GBPUSD has moved below the recent uptrend and the moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that price may start down-trending. If the GBPUSD starts retracing, shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2780, 1.2840 and 1.2880.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The UK election result has been announced. The purpose of the election was to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity but this has not happened. There is concern that a government coalition creates more political and economic uncertainty. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
UK Manufacturing data will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the British Prime Minister around 0700-0900 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD is ranging within a tight horizontal channel at 0.7195-0.7220. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are starting to tighten. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the NZDUSD breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the previous trend support area (as resistance). If the NZDUSD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.7145 and 0.7115.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to be choppy and move within a horizontal channel at 1.3425-1.3540 and has been rejected at the channel resistance area. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and providing no clear market direction – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
Canadian Employment data will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that the USDCHF could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous range resistance at 0.9670, around the bullish channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has been bullish and is currently attempting a move higher. Price is above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening and are about to cross bullish, all signalling that the USDJPY may start up-trending. Price action has also formed a bullish channel. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 110.65 and 111.65.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggesting in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has found support around the previous resistance at 1271.90 but price seems to now be attempting a move lower. GOLD is looking a little indecisive. From a technical view, there are many mixed trading signals. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1260.00, 1271.90 and 1294.25 and around the moving averages.
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