After the ECB press-conference the price fell down sharply and on pretty large volume. We need to highlight the new level of resistance 1.1217 – 1.1231 where large volume is concentrated. Besides it this level has been already tested and the price rebounded down. So we can use this level in our intraday trading the euro.
If the price tests the resistance one more time and continues falling, we can open short position and a stop loss set above the level 1.1238. A potential of the fall is around 70-80 pips.
As for long positions, we can consider opening them only after the breakout of the maximum 1.1264 – 1.1279.
The pound opened today with a huge gap and is trading under the previous support level 1.2783 – 1.2792 now. This move was caused by Parliamentary Elections in the UK. Unfortunately, any new volume levels are impossible to be allocated now, because volume is spread throughout the chart. So the best decision will be just to wait for a creation of new volume level and for the situation to become more clear.
The yen continued falling and it testing the breakout point. If price absorbs the whole downward move, our previous scenario of opening short positions will be cancelled. Now it seems like a possible scenario.
But anyway, it is too dangerous to trade against such a strong trend + we do not have a good place for a stop loss, because the growth of the price was on small volume. So that it is better just not to trade this pair today.
USD/CAD has tested the level of support 1.3479 – 1.2498 and rebounded up. Now the price is trading a little bit above the support so our previous scenario remains the same: after a resumption of the growth supported by increased volume we open long positions. A stop loss should be placed below the level 1.3479. A potential of the growth is around 80-90 pips.
The Australian dollar is trading in the local consolidation below the level of resistance 0.7563. This level contains large volume and is the higher boundary of the range, so if the price breaks it out it will be a great signal for purchases. The move should be on increased volume, a stop loss should be placed below the breakout bar. A potentisl of the deal is around 60-70 pips.
But given the strengthening of the US dollar, we should be extremely careful with this deal.
Due to fundamental factors XAU/USD showed a sharp fall on large volume and tested the support level of 1274.10 – 1277.00. The price could not break this level, but it did not show a sharp and strong rebound and remained trading within this mark.
Also, the support 1274.10 – 1277.00 is the lower limit of consolidation, so if the price breaks through this level, then it is worth considering the scenario of opening short positions.
Thus, if the price breaks out the support on large volume and continues its fall or is fixed below it, then we can open short position for gold. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the beginning of the breakout movement. The potential of the deal is about 120-130 points.
The sentiment: this indicator did not react on the market changes, so we should notice that using it in analyzing pairs.
The bottom line: the situation on the market is a bit complicated now, because the US dollar strengthened and many pairs are showing corrections now. So we should be extremely careful today. The best scenarios are for the euro and gold.