Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 08, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the shorter-term moving average and continues to uptrend and be bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the AUDUSD could attempt another swing higher. If price starts retracing during today’s trading sessions, long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.7515 and 0.7470.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has moved below the horizontal channel support area and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price may attempt to swing lower. The EURGBP has also formed a bearish channel. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel support at 0.8695, around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the channel support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced a general election to be held on 8th June (this coming Thursday). The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
There is a European Central Bank Rate Announcement at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1230 UTC.
UK General Election:
Voting will take place from 0600 UTC-2100 UTC on 08/06/2017. Results should start being announced from 0000 UTC on 09/06/2016 with a final result by 0400-0600 UTC.
The market has priced in a majority win by the Conservative party. If there is a hung parliament (no major party win, usually leads to a coalition) then the GBP could move much lower – some analysts are expecting Sterling to drop to around 1.2000 against the US Dollar.
GBP pairs are likely to be volatile.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price action has become choppy and indecision. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. The EURUSD is ranging between horizontal levels at 1.1205 and 1.1280. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
There is a European Central Bank Rate Announcement at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a Press Conference and US Unemployment Claims at 1230 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to be bullish and uptrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is still within a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous swing high and horizontal resistance at 1.2935, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. The GBPUSD may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.2995.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced a general election to be held on 8th June (this Thursday). The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
UK General Election:
Voting will take place from 0600 UTC-2100 UTC on 08/06/2017. Results should start being announced from 0000 UTC on 09/06/2016 with a final result by 0400-0600 UTC.
The market has priced in a majority win by the Conservative party. If there is a hung parliament (no major party win, usually leads to a coalition) then the GBP could move much lower – some analysts are expecting Sterling to drop to around 1.2000 against the US Dollar.
GBP pairs are likely to be volatile.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has found support around the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and continues to move higher. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7145 and 0.7115. Price may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price attempted a break to the downside of the horizontal channel but the USDCAD quickly reversed. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3425-1.3540 and the USDCAD is moving within the channel. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Speech from the Bank of Canada at 1515 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the horizontal level at 0.9675. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9615-0.9675 and price is ranging. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has reversed around the 50.0% Fib level and is attempting to swing lower. Price looks like it may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 109.15 and 109.95 though. The moving averages are very bearish but they are starting to tighten slightly and the USDJPY was recently above the shorter-term moving average, all suggesting that selling momentum could be weakening. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance levels and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD moved below the tight horizontal channel at 1290.95-1294.25 and has since been bearish. Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and lows and GOLD has been clearly up-trending. The bullish moving averages are starting the move sideways though, suggesting that buying momentum could be weakening. Price may struggle to swing high and may reverse around the swing high at 1294.25. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the other identified horizontal levels.
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