Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 29.05-02.06.2017

EUR/USD

The euro rebounded from the resistance level 1.1231 – 1.1243 and continued trading in the local consolidation under this level. The fall was on increased volume with BID deltas, so we can’t open long positions now. On the other hand there is a strong uptrend for the euro, that’s why it is too risky to open sales now.

Also we need to highlight a huge volume accumulation in the range, so its breakout, probably, will start a new local trend.

So the only good scenario for trading the euro is to wait for the continuation of the growth and a breakout of the resistance on large volume. In such case we can open long positions with a stop loss set under the breakout volume bar. A potential of the growth is around 80-90 pips.

If the price continues falling down sharply and on increased volume and breaks the lower boundary of the consolidation, only in such case we can consider opening short positions.

GBP/USD

The pound finally broke down the lower boundary of the consolidation and fell down sharply. It seems like a beginning of a local downtrend.

It is necessary to highlight the new support level 1.2783 – 1.2792. This level was created on Friday and contain large volume, that stopped the downward move of the price.

All these fact tell us that we should consider sales as a priority scenario. We can enter the market after a confident breakdown of the support on increased volume. A stop loss should be set above the beginning of the breakdown move. A potential of the deal is around 100 pips.

USD/JPY

The yen fell down from the resistance level 111.70 – 111.90 on Friday, but overall the price is still trading in the consolidation. Also this range consists huge volume, so, most probably, its breakout will be a beginning of the local trend for the yen.

That’s why we can enter the market and open short positions after the breakout of the level 111.84. The move should be on increased volume. A stop loss should be set above the beginning of the fall. The first target is the level 110.27, if the price breaks this mark, it will open a road down. The overall potential of the deal is 110-120 pips.

USD/CAD

After a sharp fall, the Canadian dollar corrected and is trading in a small consolidation now. Unfortunately, the volume is spread throughout the chart, so it is impossible to identify any levels or zones.
Nevertheless, given the downward trend, sales are in priority. We can open short positions after the beginning of a strong move down on large volume. A stop loss should be placed above the beginning of this fall. The potential of the deal is about 100 points.

AUD/USD

For the Australian dollar, the situation is very confusing: the pair is trading in consolidation and moving without volume. Therefore, any significant level is impossible to notice.
Therefore, the most correct solution is to skip this tool and not trade it.

XAU/USD

The price has broken out the higher boundary of the consolidation and the level of resistance 1261.10 – 1263.20. The move was on small volume, but the price fixed above this mark, so it is a good signal for buying.

It is necessary to note that the volume accumulation that was in the consolidation acts as a support now.

We can open long positions after a resumption of the growth, especially if the move is on large volume. It will be a more specific signal. A stop loss should be placed below the level 1264.00, a potential of the growth is 150 pips.

The bottom line: GBP/USD, USD/JPY and XAU/USD have the best situations for trading now. For the euro and the Canadian dollar we need to wait for a strong signal to be able to trade these instruments.

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