Daily Technical Forex Forecast 26.05.2017

EUR/USD

The euro could not break the resistance level 1.1231 – 1.1243 and after the test of this mark continued trading in the local consolidation. In this range, large volume is concentrated, so the exit of the price from the consolidation will be an excellent signal for trading.
It is worth noting that the test and the price rebound from the level was smooth and on very small volume, so it is not a reversal signal at all. A strong uptrend remains also relevant. Thus, purchases remain a priority scenario for trading.

We can open long positions only after a sharp and confident breakdown of the resistance level 1.1231 – 1.1243. The breakdown movement should be on increased volume and the price should be fixed above it. This will protect us from false breakdown.
A stop loss should be placed below the beginning of the volumetric breakout movement. The potential of the deal is about 80-90 points.

GBP/USD

The pound fell down sharply, but on very small volume, so that we can’t highlight any new volume level or zone. Besides it the price is still trading in the consolidation. Also we need to point out a huge accumulation of volume in the range, so all factors tell us that until the pair breaks the range out we should stay out of the market.

USD/JPY

The yen is trading inside the level of resistance 111.66 – 111.85, so we can trade this pair only after a beginning of the strong move from this mark. Besides it, we have a situation when we can trade in both directions, regarding of a behavior of the instrument.

If the price breaks out the resistance on large volume, we open long positions and set a stop loss below the beginning of the volume growth. The target is 113.17.

If the price start falling down on large volume, we can open short positions with a stop loss set above the resistance. A potential of the fall is around 120 pips.

USD/CAD

A strong fall of oil prices caused a correction of USD/CAD. The growth of the price was on small volume, so we can’t consider it as a reversal signal, but situation became more difficult for trading now.

We can open short positions only after a resumption of the fall on large volume. A stop loss should be placed above either the level 1.3540 or the daily maximum, depending on what level is higher. A potential of the fall more than 100 pips.

AUD/USD

Despite a strong fall of the price, the Australian dollar is still trading in the consolidation. The downward move was on very small volume, so we can’t point out any new level or zone.

That’s why the best decision for this instrument is to stay out of the market today.

XAU/USD

Gold could not continue growing and was trading in the local consolidation below the level of resistance 1261.10 – 1263.20. This level is a cornerstone in trading gold as it contains really huge volume and is a local maximum.

As can be seen from the chart above, there is a large accumulation of volume inside the consolidation. So its breakout will be an excellent signal for trading the instrument.

Given the uptrend, we should consider purchases as a main scenario. We can enter the market only after the breakout of the resistance 1261.10 – 1263.20 on large volume. A stop loss should be set below a beginning of the breakout move. A potential of the growth is 150 pips.

The sentiment: scenarios for EUR/USD, USD/CAD and gold (partially) are confirmed. For the yen short positions should be in priority, but we can trade in both directions from the resistance. 

The bottom line: in my opinion, the best deals today are long positions for both the euro and gold. Also watch for the yen as it can give a good entry point.

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