Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 23, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed bullish around the moving averages and continues to uptrend. Price is moving within a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the AUDUSD may continue to uptrend. If price starts retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7465, around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. The AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and is now forming a swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 0.8610.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced a general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
A German Ifo Business Climate figure will be released at 0800 UTC today. This is followed by UK Inflation Report Hearings at 0900 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the trend support area and the previous swing high at 1.1165 and the buying momentum has continued. The EURUSD is clearly up-trending and has formed a series of higher swing highs and lows. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the buying momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 1.1165. If price moves below the trend support area, the EURUSD may attempt a bearish move. Price could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance and recent swing high at 1.1255.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
A German Ifo Business Climate figure will be released at 0800 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy and has been rejected around the horizontal resistance at 1.3040 (identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are still bullish, suggesting that the GBPUSD may attempt another bullish move. Price is below the moving averages though, signalling that the GBPUSD may head towards the identified diagonal support area. Price is consolidating between the horizontal resistance at 1.3040 and the diagonal support area. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced a general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There will be UK Inflation Report Hearings at 0900 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has moved above the range resistance area and has since been rallying. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance at 0.6945, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the NZDUSD could uptrend.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. This has caused some weakness. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has been finding support around the bearish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending within the bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCAD could continue to downtrend and may move below the channel support. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 1.3575 and around the channel resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the channel support area.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish but they have become slightly tighter, signalling that selling momentum may be weakening. The USDCHF is also looking a little over-extended, suggesting that price may struggle to move lower and may start retracing. If the USDCHF does start retracing, selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9760 and 0.9810. Buying opportunities could exist around the recent low at 0.9695 and around the identified diagonal support area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has moved below the range support area but has not been that bearish. The moving averages are tightening, suggesting that price may struggle to move lower or even become indecisive. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous range support and resistance areas at 111.05 and 111.55 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. The USDJPY may stall or reverse around the swing low at 110.30.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has stalled around the horizontal resistance at 1263.85. The moving averages are bullish but are tight, signalling that buying momentum could be weakening. Price has been up-trending but is now consolidating between the horizontal resistance at 1263.85 and identified diagonal support area. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, GOLD may stall or reverse around the previous horizontal resistance at 1236.30.
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