Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 22, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found support around the bullish channel support area. The AUDUSD continues to display upside weakness – price is struggling to reach the other side of the channel and form higher swing highs – signalling that price may move below the channel support area. The moving averages confirm this – they are no longer bullish but are moving sideways. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. If price moves below the support area, the AUDUSD may attempt a bearish move. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7390 and 0.7465.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8615 and continues to move within the horizontal channel at 0.8525-0.8615 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced a general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
The British Prime Minister will speak at 1800 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and continues to uptrend. The bullish moving averages are starting to tighten, suggesting that price may start retracing. Buying opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1165 and 1.1080, around the trend support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD has been bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has found resistance around the recent high at 1.3040 and is currently pulling-back. The GBPUSD still looks choppy but the moving averages continue to be bullish and steady, signalling that price may attempt another bullish move. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.3040.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced a general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
The British Prime Minister will speak at 1800 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to range between the horizontal levels at 0.6820 and 0.6945. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. This has caused some weakness. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. The USDCAD is now moving off the bearish channel support area. Price has formed a clear bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all suggesting that the USDCAD could continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal channel support at 1.3575 and around the bearish channel resistance area.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has moved below the recent range support area and continues to downtrend (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous range support and resistance areas at 0.9760 and 0.9810 and around the bearish moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY continues to find resistance around the 38.2% Fib level and continues to range between the horizontal levels at 111.10 and 111.55. The bearish moving averages are now tightening and starting to move sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDJPY may stall or reverse around the Fib levels and around the identified diagonal resistance area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017 though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish but is starting to look a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are starting to move sideways. From a technical view, there are very few areas that may provide clear trading opportunities. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the trend support area. GOLD may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels.
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