Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 18, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved higher and continues to uptrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but the AUDUSD did initially move lower and break areas of support first. Price is forming a new swing high and the moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the AUDUSD may continue it’s bullish run. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.7445 and 0.7435, around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the recent swing high at 0.7545.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off in the commodity markets has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggest in yesterday’s chart analysis, price started retracing during yesterday’s trading sessions but the retracement did not last long and no significant buying areas were reached. The EURGBP is struggling to move above the 0.8610 area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the buying momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the recent swing low at 0.8560 and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 0.8610. There is a possibility that the EURGBP may start ranging between the 2 horizontal levels. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
UK Retails Sales will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a European Central Bank Speech at 1700 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Price is looking over-extended, suggesting that the EURUSD is due a bearish retracement. If price does start retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous swing high at 1.1015.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a European Central Bank Speech at 1700 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD moved above the symmetrical triangle resistance area and moved higher. Price soon stalled and reversed around the identified horizontal resistance at 1.2985 (as also suggested). The GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas (1.2850-1.2985) and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the previous symmetrical triangle resistance and around the moving averages.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
UK Retail Sales will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a US Unemployment Claims figure at 1230 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved out of the bearish channel but reversed bearish around the horizontal resistance at 0.6945 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to look indecisive but the moving averages are bullish and are holding, suggesting that price may attempt a bullish move. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and if price moves above the resistance at 0.6945.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be rate hike in the foreseeable future. This has caused some weakness. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD continues to look a little choppy but continues downtrend within the identified bearish channel. Price is currently retracing some of the recent bearish swing. Selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the previous horizontal support at 1.3650 and around the bearish channel resistance area. The USDCAD may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting the downside momentum could continue.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The strong sell-off of OIL is causing great weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The moving averages are very bearish and are widening, signalling that the selling momentum may continue. The USDCHF does look over-extended though and could be due a bullish retracement. Price has been struggling to move below the 0.9780 area. If the USDCHF does start retracing, shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 0.9860 and if price moves below the horizontal support at 0.9780.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has moved lower and has been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price may continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support at 112.20 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has moved higher and continues to uptrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the buying momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous bullish channel support and resistance areas, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1236.30.
Hits: 1