Daily Technical Forex Forecast 18.05.2017

EUR/USD

The euro continued growing, moreover, the uptrend is supported by pretty large volume, so the possibility of further move up is quite high.

Also we need to highlight the new level of support 1.1106 – 1.1114, that contains huge volume, after appearance which, the price resumed its growth.

Given all these facts we should consider only long positions for the euro now. Unfortunately, we can’t enter the market as a stop loss will be to large. That’s why it is necessary to wait for a smooth correction of the pair to obtain a better price for enter. A stop loss should be placed below the level 1.1080 (the safest place) or the support. A potential of the growth is around 80-90 pips.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD continues trading in the global consolidation, however, the price is near the upper limit of consolidation 1.2985 now. This level is also a technical resistance, as the price has already tested this mark 2 times, but could not break it.

It is also worth noting the tendency of growing of the price over the past couple of days, also the upward movement was accompanied by increased volume, which only strengthens the probable scenario of the price exit from the consolidation upwards.

From the volumetric graph it can be seen that very large volume is concentrated in this range, which will act as a support after the price exit from the consolidation.

Long positions can be opened after a confident breakdown of the level 1.2985 with further fixation of the price above it. This movement should be on increased volume to avoid false breakdown. A stop loss should be placed under the volumetric breakdown bar. The potential of a growth is about 150 points.

USD/JPY

The yen showed a strong and abrupt fall of the price on really large volume. We need to highlight the new level of resistance 111.70 – 111.90 which contains large volume. This level is a cornerstone for trading USD/JPY today.

After a smooth correction of the price up on small volume we enter the market and open short positions. A stop loss should be set above the resistance. A potential of the fall more than 120 pips.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD failed to continue falling and the price is trading in a small consolidation above the level of support 1.3579 now.

Our scenario remains the same – after the breakdown of the support we should open short positions. The move must be confident and on increased volume to avoid a fake breakout. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout bar. A potential of the fall is around 100-110 pips.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has broken up the level of resistance, besides it the breakout was on huge volume, so it tells that bulls are dominating the market.

We can enter the market after a smooth correction of the price to get a better entry price. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the growth is around 70 pips.

XAU/USD

Gold showed a strong growth of the price on very large volume. The new volume level of support was created, it’s 1252.70 – 1254.70.

So there are a confident uptrend and a fresh level of support for XAU/USD.

These facts make long positions our priority scenario for today. We can enter the market after a smooth correction of the price to, approximately, level 1256.70. It is necessary, because if we open long positions from the current level, we’ll get a pretty big stop loss and, consequently, a poor risk/profit ratio.

A stop loss should be placed below the support with a little margin. A potential of the growth is around 140 pips.

The sentiment: the mood of the market has reacted to the changes of the price of all instruments and almost all our scenarios are confirmed now. Only exception are deals for USD/CAD and AUD/USD, so we need to be careful trading these instruments.

The bottom line: the euro, the yen and gold have the best situations for trading today. The pound is also interesting, but only after a breakout of the resistance.

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