Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 17, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD continues to move within a bullish channel. Price action has now also formed a horizontal channel at 0.7400-0.7435. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the AUDUSD could break to the upside. Long opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area and around the bullish moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off in the commodity markets has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. This is followed by Australian Employment data at 0130 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has moved much higher. The EURGBP is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are very bullish and price action is looking over-extended, both signalling that the EURGBP may be due a bearish retracement. If price does start retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area, around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8505 and around any of the key Fib levels.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
UK Retails Sales will be released at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has been very bullish and price is forming a swing higher. The moving averages are very bullish and price action is looking over-extended, both signalling that the EURUSD could be due a bearish retracement. If price does start retracing, opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1015.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the symmetrical triangle resistance area and continues to move within the pattern. The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and continues to consolidate within a horizontal channel at 1.2850-1.2985 and within the symmetrical triangle. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel and symmetrical triangle support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
UK Retail Sales will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1430 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is looking choppy but is moving within a bearish channel and is slowly down-trending. The NZDUSD is currently retracing and is at the bearish channel resistance area. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6945. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be rate hike in the foreseeable future. This has caused some weakness. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD found support around the bearish channel support area and has bounced bullish. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price may continue to downtrend within the bearish channel and perhaps test the bearish channel support area again. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal resistance at 1.3650, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. The USDCAD may stall or reverse around the channel support area.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The strong sell-off of OIL is causing great weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales data will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1430 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has continued to be bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is looking a little over-extended, suggesting that the USDCHF may start retracing some of the recent bearish swing during today’s trading sessions. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 0.9860 and around the bearish moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the moving averages and has since moved lower. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the USDJPY may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 113.00 and 113.15, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. Price may stall or retrace at the horizontal support at 112.20.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to be bullish and uptrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting that GOLD may continue its bullish run. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1236.30. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
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