Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 15, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved above the consolidation resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that price may continue to move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified diagonal support area. There is a possibility that the AUDUSD may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.7335 and 0.7425. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off in the commodity markets has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 0130 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has formed a swing high around the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could struggle to move back to the bearish channel support area. Shorting opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area. The EURGBP may stall or reverse around the bullish moving averages.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
British Prime Minister (Theresa May) will speak at 0700 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear market direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.0850 and 1.1015.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As identified in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal support at 1.2850. The GBPUSD is looking indecisive and is consolidating within a horizontal channel at 1.2850-1.2985 and within a symmetrical triangle. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel and symmetrical triangle support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
British Prime Minister (Theresa May) will speak at 0700 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to move within a bearish channel and downtrend. The NZDUSD is currently retracing and heading towards the bearish channel resistance area. Opportunities to go short may exist around the 61.8% Fib level, around the previous support at 0.6885, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6945. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be rate hike in the foreseeable future. This has caused some weakness. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been rejected off the range resistance area and has continued to move within the range. Price is now attempting a move below the range support area, signalling that the USDCAD may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous range support at 1.3645, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the potential bearish channel support area.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The strong sell-off of OIL is causing great weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF moved below the horizontal channel support area at 1.0060 and has since been retracing the recent bullish swing (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bearish and are starting to widening, suggesting that price may continue to retrace. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance areas and around the bearish moving averages. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9965.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns.
There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price moved below the range support area and has reversed bullish around the long-term trend support area. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDJPY may attempt another bearish move. From a technical view, price looks a bit indecisive and there is no clear current direction. Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 113.00. Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and the recent swing high at 114.35.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to move within the bullish channel (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that GOLD may move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. If price moves below the channel support area, GOLD may attempt a bearish move lower. GOLD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1234.75.
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