Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 15-19.05.2017

EUR/USD

After the test of the local minimum/support 1.0844 – 1.0853 the price went up sharply and on very large volume. The reason was the bad macroeconomic data in the USA that weakened the US dollar on Friday. It is necessary to point out the new volume level of support 1.0914 – 1.0923.

Given all these factors, long positions are in priority now. We can enter the market after either a resumption of the growth on Monday or the test of the support with subsequent rebound of the price from it on large volume. The second scenario is more attractive. A stop loss should be placed below the level 1.0914. The target is 1.1000.

GBP/USD

The pound failed to continue falling after a strong bearish momentum last Thursday. The price is trading inside the level of resistance 1.2877 – 1.2899, that is a cornerstone for trading the pound. Because until we should consider opening short positions until its breakout.

Also it contains really huge volume.

We can enter the market and open short positions only after a resuming of the fall on increased volume that will be a good signal that sellers are still dominating the market and want to push the price down.

A stop loss should be placed above the level 1.2899. The target is 1.2777.

USD/JPY

The situation for the yen is complicated now, because the pair has broken down the support and is trading below it. It’s a good bearish signal, but on the other hand there is a strong uptrend + we don’t have a good place for a stop loss in case of opening short positions.

Given all these, it is very hard to predict further moves of the price and the best decision will be to stay out of the market for USD/JPY.

USD/CAD

The situation is confusing for the Canadian dollar, as the price continues trading in the consolidation. As can be seen from the volumetric graph below, very large volume is concentrated in this range.

Of course, USD/CAD has a strong uptrend, but it is important to note the increase in the price of oil, that supported the Canadian dollar, which only complicates the trade on this instrument.

Therefore, while the price does not leave from the given consolidation, it is necessary to be out of the market.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose against the backdrop of negative data of the US economy. The price growth was on increased volume. It is also worth highlighting a new volume resistance level 0.7409 – 0.7417.

From the volumetric chart it can be seen that the huge accumulation of volume is at the bottom of the chart. If the price breaks through the resistance level, this accumulation will act as a support, which will allow considering opening long positions for AUD/USD. A stop loss should be placed under the breakdown bar. The potential of the deal is 60-70 points.

As for sales, they can be considered only after the price falls below the volumetric accumulation.

XAU/USD

Gold showed a smooth growth at the end of last week. This move was support by increased volume. Also it is necessary to highlight a new resistance level for gold: 1229.30 – 1231.40. Huge volume is concentrated. Also this level stopped a growth of the price.

So the situation is unclear now, as we have both bearish and bullish signs.

In such case the best decision will be to wait for the further movement of the price from the level 1229.30 – 1231.40. We can highlight 2 scenarios:

1. If the price rebounds from the resistance and continue sharp fall we can open short positions. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance. The target is a local minimum.
2. If the price breaks out the level of resistance on large volume and is fixed above it, we can open long positions with a stop loss set below the breakout volumetric bar. The target is 1250.00.

The sentiment: due to the complicated situation on the market the sentiment and our scenario differ. Only the deal for the euro is confirmed. For all other instrument we should be careful and watch for changes of this indicator.

The bottom line: the euro seems like the best deal now. The pound and gold also have interesting situations, but we can trade them only after an appearance of additional signals.

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