Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 12, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been moving off the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and continues to range between 0.7335 and 0.7390. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price action has also formed a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off in the commodity markets has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP was retracing but recently found resistance around the 50.0% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to downtrend within the bearish channel. The moving averages are tightening and becoming more bearish, suggesting that the EURGBP may attempt to move towards the bearish channel resistance area. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib level and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the bearish channel support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD was rejected around the 38.2% Fib level and managed to form a swing lower. As also suggested, price has found support around the horizontal support area at 1.0850. The moving averages are bearish and are steady and the EURUSD has formed a bearish channel, all signalling that price could continue to be bearish. Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the longer-term moving average and if the EURUSD moves below the horizontal support at 1.0850. Price may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price moved below the consolidation support area and has moved much lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to move within the horizontal channel though, 1.2850-1.2985. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening slightly, suggesting that price may attempt a move below the horizontal channel support area. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous support at 1.2910 and around the identified diagonal resistance area. Selling opportunities could also exist if price moves below the horizontal channel support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the previous horizontal support at 0.6850 and continues to move within the bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the NZDUSD may attempt a bearish move. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6850 and 0.6885, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be rate hike in the foreseeable future. This has caused some weakness. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD continues to range between the horizontal levels at 1.3640 and 1.3745 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDCAD breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3790.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The strong sell-off of OIL is causing great weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.0060-1.0095 and the USDCHF is ranging within the channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may break to the upside. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been moving off the range support area and continues to range between 113.65 and 114.35. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDJPY breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the trend support area or around the previous horizontal resistance at 113.00.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to retrace and be bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and GOLD is currently up-trending within the channel. Price is above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, signalling that GOLD may continue to retrace or start moving sideways. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1234.75.
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