Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 05, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to be bearish. The AUDUSD found resistance around the previous bullish channel support area and has since moved lower. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price may continue to move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous channel support area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off of commodities has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US Non-Farm Payrolls is at 1330 UTC today. This event will likely cause volatility across all currency pairs. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1830 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP moved above the consolidation resistance area and has since moved higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the market indecision may be coming to an end and that price may attempt a bullish move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous range resistance at 0.8485, around the support and resistance of the previous symmetrical triangle and around the moving averages.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician – will win the election.
US Non-Farm Payrolls is at 1330 UTC today. This event will likely cause volatility across all currency pairs.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has moved above the consolidation area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the market indecision may be coming to an end and that price may attempt a bullish move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 1.0950, around the support and resistance of the previous symmetrical triangle and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician – will win the election.
US Non-Farm Payrolls is at 1330 UTC today. This event will likely cause volatility across all currency pairs. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1830 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bullish around the horizontal level at 1.2850 and has since found resistance around the identified diagonal resistance. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, signalling that the GBPUSD may continue to retrace the recent bullish moves. Price is above the moving averages though, suggesting that the GBPUSD could move higher. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area. Buying opportunities could exist if price moves above the bearish channel resistance area. The GBPUSD may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2850 and 1.2775.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US Non-Farm Payrolls is at 1330 UTC today. This event will likely cause volatility across all currency pairs. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1830 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear direction. The NZDUSD is consolidating. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation horizontal support at 0.6850 and the identified consolidation resistance and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).
New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US Non-Farm Payrolls is at 1330 UTC today. This event will likely cause volatility across all currency pairs. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1830 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD found support around the moving averages and continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. Price continues to struggle to reach the bullish channel resistance area and the moving averages continue to slowly tighten, all signalling that the USDCAD may attempt a bearish move out of the channel. Shorting opportunities could exist if price moves below the moving averages and the channel support area. Long opportunities could exist if the USDCAD finds support around the channel support and the moving averages.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The sell-off of OIL is causing weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US Non-Farm Payrolls is at 1330 UTC today. This event will likely cause volatility across all currency pairs. Canadian Employment data will be released at the same time. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1830 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF moved below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could continue to downtrend and move lower. The USDCHF is currently around a bearish channel support area, signalling that price may start retracing. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous range support area at 0.9900, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near.
US Non-Farm Payrolls is at 1330 UTC today. This event will likely cause volatility across all currency pairs. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1830 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved below the bullish channel support area and is now attempting a move below the moving averages, all signalling that it could be a bearish day for the USDJPY. Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the support and resistance of the previous bullish channel. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 111.55 and 111.00.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US returns. The Yen may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
US Non-Farm Payrolls is at 1330 UTC today. This event will likely cause volatility across all currency pairs. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1830 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to move lower and downtrend. GOLD is now retracing some of the recent bearish swing. The moving averages are bearish and are widening and price action has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that GOLD may continue to be bearish. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the bearish channel resistance area.
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