Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 02, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved above the horizontal channel resistance area at 0.7490 and has now reached the bearish channel resistance area. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that price may attempt to move above the bearish channel resistance area. Selling opportunities could exist around the channel resistance area. Buying opportunities could exist if the AUDUSD moves above the channel resistance and around the bullish moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price is looking choppy and a bit indecisive. The EURGBP has moved above the moving averages and the recent horizontal resistance at 0.8460, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move. The bearish moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and becoming more bullish. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8460, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the diagonal support area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician –  will win the election.

A UK Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD continues to consolidate within a symmetrical triangle pattern and within a horizontal channel at 1.0835-1.0950. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the triangle and horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either of the patterns (break-out trades).

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician –  will win the election.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has bounced bullish off both moving averages but the GBPUSD continues to be bearish and retrace the recent swing higher. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are steadily bullish, all suggesting that the GBPUSD may move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bullish channel support area and around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 1.2855. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A UK Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD moved out of the range and has since been bullish. Price is above the moving averages and could be forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern. The moving averages are tightening and are about to cross bullish, all of this signalling that the NZDUSD may attempt a bullish move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, as price forms the 2nd shoulder of the inverted head and shoulders pattern, around the previous range resistance at 0.6880 and around the bullish channel support area.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A New Zealand GDT Price Index figure will be announced around 1445-1515 UTC today. This is followed by Employment data at 2345 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD continues to move within a bullish channel and uptrend. Recent price action has been moving sideways though and is currently ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.3635 and 1.3680. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt a move to the bullish channel resistance area. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, if price moves above the range resistance at 1.3680 and around the bullish channel support area. The USDCAD may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. OIL has been finding support around $48-$50. Any upside move may strengthen the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been moving off the horizontal channel resistance area and continues to move within the horizontal channel at 0.9905-0.9965. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The channel resistance has been tested several times, suggesting that if it is tested again it will not hold.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price was rejected around the shorter-term moving average and has since been finding resistance around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is now attempting a bullish above the channel resistance area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that a move above the channel resistance may succeed. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 111.70, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Buying opportunities could also exist if the USDJPY closes above the bullish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US returns. The Yen may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD moved below the range support area at 1261.80 and has since moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance areas, around the bearish moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. GOLD may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

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