Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 01, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been moving off the range support and resistance areas and continues to range between the horizontal levels at 0.7450 and 0.7490. The AUDUSD is also moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish but are beginning to tighten, suggesting that price may attempt a bullish move towards the bearish channel resistance area. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area.
The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
A US Treasury Speech is scheduled for 1245 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce rates at 0530 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP reversed bearish around the previous horizontal channel support at 0.8460 and has moved lower. Price is now looking a little indecisive and seems to be moving sideways. The moving averages are bearish and are widening though, signalling that the EURGBP may attempt another bearish move. Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the horizontal level at 0.8460 and if price moves below the horizontal support at 0.8410.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician – will win the election.
There is no major scheduled news during today’s trading sessions.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1.0835-1.0950. Price has also now formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. The EURUSD is consolidating and is indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the triangle and horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either of the patterns (break-out trades).
The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician – will win the election.
A US Treasury Speech is scheduled for 1245 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to uptrend and is currently retracing some of a recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous range resistance at 1.2855.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
A US Treasury Speech is scheduled for 1245 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has been very bearish but is now ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.6850 and 0.6880. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the NZDUSD may break to the down-side and continue to be bearish. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages.
New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
A US Treasury Speech is scheduled for 1245 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price continues to be bullish and move within a bullish channel. The USDCAD didn’t quite reach the bullish channel resistance area and the moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, all suggesting that price may move out of the bullish channel and attempt a bearish move. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages and the identified support areas. Opportunities to go short could exist around the horizontal resistance at 1.3670 and if price moves below the moving averages and the trend support areas.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. OIL has been finding support around $48-$50. Any upside move may strengthen the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
A US Treasury Speech is scheduled for 1245 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. The USDCHF has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9905-0.9965. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near.
A US Treasury Speech is scheduled for 1245 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY is attempting a move out of the range. The moving averages are bullish and price has formed a bullish channel, both suggesting that the break-out could succeed. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the range resistance at 111.70. The USDJPY may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US returns. The Yen may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.
A US Treasury Speech is scheduled for 1245 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been reversing around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas at 1261.75-1270.75. Just like many Forex pairs, GOLD is ranging and is currently indecisive. The moving averages are slightly bearish but are very tight – confirming the lack of trend momentum. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
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