Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 28, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since formed a swing lower. The moving averages continue to be bearish and widen, suggesting that price may move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous support and resistance of the symmetrical price pattern. The AUDUSD may range between the horizontal levels at 0.7450 and 0.7490. Trading opportunities could exist around these horizontal levels and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP moved below the horizontal support at 0.8560 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that price may continue to move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support and around the bearish moving averages.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – who is neither strongly left or right –  will win the election.

A UK Preliminary GDP figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has moved below the bullish channel support area and continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1.0835-1.0950. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are starting to move sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Shorting opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal resistance and around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance).

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – who is neither strongly left or right –  will win the election.

A US Advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has continued to be bullish and uptrend. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, all signalling that the GBPUSD could move higher. If price pulls-back in today’s trading sessions, buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 1.2850. The GBPUSD may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A UK Preliminary GDP figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a US Advance GDP figure at 1330 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the 23.6% Fib level and the shorter-term moving average and has since formed a bearish swing lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending and price is forming some clear swing highs and swing lows. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6915. Price may stall or reverse around the previous swing low at 0.6850. The moving averages are bearish are steady, suggesting that selling momentum may continue.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed bullish around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and continues to move within the bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the USDCAD may continue to uptrend. Long opportunities could exist around the identified trend support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. A Canadian GDP figure will be released at the same time.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF found support around the horizontal support at 0.9920 and has moved above the bearish channel resistance area. Price is now ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9920 and 0.9960. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support).

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near.

There is a Swiss National Bank Speech at 0900 UTC today. This is followed by a US Advance GDP figure at 1330 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY is consolidating within a horizontal channel at 110.95-111.70 and within a symmetrical price pattern. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tightening. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either patterns (break-out trades).

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US returns. The Yen may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has moved above the recent bearish channel resistance area and is now ranging within a horizontal channel at 1261.80-1269.50. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the previous channel resistance area (as support). The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

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