Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 19, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price formed the 2nd shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern and has since moved lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that the AUDUSD could continue to be bearish. Price is looking a little indecisive though and is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.7475 and 0.7610. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1530 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP moved below the range support area and has since been very bearish. Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may continue to be bearish. If price retraces in today’s trading sessions, opportunities to sell could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister is proposing a general election on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD moved above the consolidation areas and has since rallied much higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.0670 and 1.0680 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1530 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price found support around the bullish moving averages and the trend support area and has since moved much higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is now ranging between 1.2820 and 1.2850. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the GBPUSD breaks to the downside and starts retracing the recent bullish swing, buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the moving averages.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister is proposing a general election on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1530 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bullish around the bullish channel support area and has since moved higher. The NZDUSD continues to move within the bullish channel. Price struggled to reach the channel resistance area and is now testing the channel support area again, suggesting that the NZDUSD may move out of the channel. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to tighten and move sideways. Selling opportunities could exist if price moves below the bullish channel support area and around the recent swing high at 0.7045.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1530 UTC today. This is followed by a New Zealand CPI figure at 2345 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has formed some clear higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are also bullish and are widening, all suggesting that price may be up-trending and that the recent indecision may be over. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3335 and 1.3350 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1530 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF moved below the consolidation support areas and has since been very bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the previous consolidation support and resistance areas.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank have kept rates at -0.75%. A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1530 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 108.20-109.30 and the USDJPY has been coming-off the channel support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel and triangle support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY breaks-out of either pattern. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US returns. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1530 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to retrace the recent bullish move. Price action has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are tightening and becoming more bearish, suggesting that GOLD may continue to retrace and be bearish. Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the moving averages and if price moves below the bearish channel support area. GOLD may stall or reverse bullish around the bearish channel support area.

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