Daily Technical Forex Forecast 22.03.2017
EUR/USD
EUR/USD broke out the level of resistance with a further fixation above it. Also it is necessary to note a little consolidation near the local maximum – 1.0793 – 1.0816 where pretty high volume is concentrated. This level can’t be considered as support or resistance, but we can make trading decisions from it.
If the price continues growing and goes higher the level 1.0816, long positions can be opened with a stop loss below 1.0793. Important, the growth of the price should be on increased volume. If long positions were opened, they could be held further. Target – 1.0900. Also, be aware of high possibility of a correction of the price, because the currency pair has grown pretty much without serious correction. So in case of any reversal signal, it’s better to close a deal.
If the price starts falling and breaks the level 1.0793 it’s better to stay out of the market, because it’s not a good choice to trade against a trend.
GBP/USD
After the release of good macroeconomic data for UK, GBP/USD resumed its growth and the new volumetric level of support was created – 1.2446 – 1.2470.
As can be seen from the volumetric chart above, the growth was on huge volume + the concentration of volume is in the bottom of the chart, which makes long positions in priority.
Purchases can be opened after the growth of the price on increased volume after the test of the support. Stop loss should be set below 1.2446. Potential of the deal is around 100 pips. Also, it is necessary to watch for the news about Brexit, which can cause huge volatility.
USD/JPY
The yen continued its fall and now is trading near its global minimum, that is also a lower boundary of the global consolidation. Also we need to highlight the new level of resistance 111.82 – 112.10 which contains huge volume and keeps the price lower itself.
Our scenario of opening short positions is still actual. Sales should be opened after the further fall of the pair and a fixation of it lower global consolidation. Stop loss should be set above the level 112.10. Potential of the deal is around 100-150 pips. Also it is necessary to watch for announcements of the BOJ about its further politics related to the yen.
USD/CAD
After the fake breakout of the support level, USD/CAD returned trading in the consolidation. We need to highlight the new volumetric level of support – 1.3275 – 1.3284. We need to consider 2 scenarios of trading this currency pair:
- Long positions after the breakout of the resistance 1.3352 – 1.3373 and fixation of the price above it. The stop loss should be placed just below the breakdown volumetric bar. The target is 1.3460.
- Short positions after the rebound of the price from the resistance level and its fall below the fresh support. The stop loss should be put just above the breakout bar. The target is 1.3160.
It is very important to watch for the price of oil, if it continues to fall, we should not open short positions for USD/CAD.
AUD/USD
It is worth noting the new level of resistance 0.7736 – 0.7748 that stopped the growth of the price and contain quite large volume. The support zone 0.7625 – 0.7663 is still actual.
Overall, the currency pair is in the consolidation now. So it can be traded only after the breakout of its borders on increased volume (it’s a must condition!). Of course, long positions have an advantage because there is a strong uptrend.
XAU/USD
Gold gave a great signal for opening long positions after its sharp growth on increased volume from the previous level of resistance. Also we need to note a new volumetric level that was created during this growth – 1239.60 – 1242.60.
Long positions can be opened after the test and rebound of the price from the level of support. Growth of the price should be on high volume. Stop loss should be set below the level 1239.60 with a little margin. Potential of the deal is around 100-120 pips.
Sentiment: the most important, that the mood of the market confirms our gold scenario. All other instruments are also confirmed, only USD/CAD and AUD/USD have difficult situations for trading.
The bottom line: the gold deal is number 1 for trading.
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