Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 08, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is still in retracement phase. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that the AUDUSD could retrace higher. Price is currently ranging within a tight horizontal channel at 0.7585-0.7605. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the AUDUSD could stall or reverse around the identified trend resistance area.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP continues to be bullish and move within the identified bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the EURGBP could continue to uptrend. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area. If the EURGBP moves below the bullish channel support area, price may move lower and become more bearish.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The UK Government will release it’s Annual Budget at 1230 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and range within a horizontal channel at 1.0500-1.0625. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD moved below the horizontal channel support area at 1.2225 and has continued to be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price could move lower. Price is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that a bullish retracement is due. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the identified horizontal resistance levels.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The UK Government will release it’s annual budget at 1230 UTC today. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. The bearish move is now looking a little over-extended, signalling that price could be due a bullish retracement. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to tighten. Opportunities to short may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal resistance levels.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bouncing-off the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and continues to range. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas (1.3375-1.3425) and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bullish and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages continue to be tight and cross frequently though, suggesting that price is still indecisive. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price is ranging within a horizontal channel at 113.65-114.05. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD moved below the horizontal support at 1223.75 and has since been bearish. Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1223.40. GOLD is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that price could be due a bullish retracement. The moving averages are bearish and steady.

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