Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 07, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD continues to retrace bullish but price has recently been rejected at the 61.8% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is moving within a bullish channel as it retraces some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are tightening and becoming more bullish, suggesting that the AUDUSD could continue to retrace. Shorting opportunities may exist around the 61.8% Fib level and around the trend resistance area. Shorting opportunities could also exist if price moves below the bullish channel support area.
The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has continued to be bullish and move within the bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the EURGBP could continue to uptrend. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area. If the EURGBP moves below the bullish channel support area, price may move lower and become more bearish.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has reversed around the range resistance area at 1.0625 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD continues to range within a horizontal channel (1.0500-1.0625) and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD is ranging within a horizontal channel at 1.2225-1.2300 and is moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the GBPUSD could break to the downside.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD moved below the range support area during yesterday’s trading sessions and price has been slightly bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that price could continue to downtrend. The NZDUSD is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that price is due a bullish retracement. Selling opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels and around the bearish moving averages.
New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A GDT Price Index figure will be released around 1445 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is moving within a horizontal channel and has bounced off the channel support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDCAD could stall or reverse around the previous bullish channel resistance area.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. Canadian Trade Balance data will be announced at 1330 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF continues to look choppy. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, suggesting that markets are indecisive. Price action has formed a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the pattern (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDCHF may reverse bearish around the horizontal resistance at 1.0140.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the longer-term moving average and the 38.2% Fib level and has been bullish. The bullish move already looks tired though and the moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that the USDJPY may continue to retrace. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 112.85.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been bearish and continues to move within the bearish channel (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is currently finding support around the horizontal level at 1223.75. GOLD could start ranging within a horizontal channel at 1223.75-1236.80. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that GOLD may move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and if price moves below the horizontal support at 1223.75. GOLD could stall or reverse around the bullish channel support area.
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