Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 06, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the shorter-term moving average and the 38.2% Fib level and attempted a bearish move. The AUDUSD continues to retrace though. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the other identified resistance levels.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is a Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Announcement at 0330 UTC. This event is likely to cause volatility to all AUD currency pairs.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP moved above the horizontal resistance at 0.8585 and has rallied higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the EURGBP may continue to move within the channel. Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8585.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is looking indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.0500-1.0625. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has started retracing some of the recent bearish move and has been bullish. The moving averages are bearish but are beginning to tighten and move sideways, signalling that price may become indecisive or retrace further. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous trend support area and around the longer-term moving average. The GBPUSD may range within a horizontal channel at 1.2225-1.2300. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is ranging within a tight horizontal channel at 0.7010-0.7045. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the NZDUSD breaks to the upside, shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around any of the key Fib levels. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may continue to downtrend.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Just like many currency pairs, the USDCAD is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.3375-1.3420. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around any of the key Fib levels. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the USDCAD could continue to uptrend.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price attempted another bullish move to the horizontal resistance at 1.0140. The USDCHF failed and has since been bearish. Price is looking a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified support and resistance areas.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been retracing some of the recent bullish swing. Price is currently finding support around the longer-term moving average and around the 38.2% Fib level. The moving averages are bullish but are beginning to tighten, suggesting that current buying momentum is weak. Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the longer-term moving average.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed bearish around the shorter-term moving average and around the trend resistance area. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1237.70. Price may stall or reverse bullish around the horizontal support at 1220.00.

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