Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 03, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been very bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price may downtrend. If price pulls-back during today’s trading sessions, shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be released at 1500 UTC today. This will be followed by a Yellen speech (Fed Chair) at 1800 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8550 and has since been bullish. Price action is forming a potential horizontal channel at 0.8550-0.8585. The EURGBP may range within this channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that the EURGBP may attempt a move higher.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. UK Services PMI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD has been bearish but price recently reversed around the previous swing low at 1.0500 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price may now range within a large horizontal channel at 1.0500-1.0625. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages though. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may move lower.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be released at 1500 UTC today. This will be followed by a Yellen speech (Fed Chair) at 1800 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be bearish, the GBPUSD has moved lower. Price has been finding support and may now attempt to retrace some of the recent bearish move. Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous bearish triangle support and resistance, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1.2395. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the GBPUSD could continue to downtrend.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A UK Services PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. US Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be released at 1500 UTC today. This will be followed by a Yellen speech (Fed Chair) at 1800 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD moved below the horizontal support at 0.7115 and has since been very bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may continue to downtrend. If price starts retracing some of the recent bearish move, selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal level.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be released at 1500 UTC today. This will be followed by a Yellen speech (Fed Chair) at 1800 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to move higher and be bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is looking a little over-extended now though and price looks like it may roll-over and start retracing. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be released at 1500 UTC today. This will be followed by a Yellen speech (Fed Chair) at 1800 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF continues to move within a bullish channel but is struggling to move above the recent swing high at 1.0340. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may attempt another bullish move. Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and if price moves above the horizontal resistance area. If the USDCHF is rejected again at the horizontal resistance, price may attempt a bearish move towards the bullish channel support area.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be released at 1500 UTC today. This will be followed by a Yellen speech (Fed Chair) at 1800 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and is retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the USDJPY may continue to uptrend. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be released at 1500 UTC today. This will be followed by a Yellen speech (Fed Chair) at 1800 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bearish and has moved below the horizontal support at 1237.70. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 1237.70, around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. GOLD may stall or reverse bullish around the horizontal support at 1220.00.

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