Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 01, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are crossing frequently and moving sideways. Price action has formed a potential horizontal channel at 0.7640-0.7730. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Manufacturing PMI data is set to be released at 1500 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price is retracing after a recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the EURGBP could continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the longer-term moving average, around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8490 and around the trend support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse bearish around the horizontal resistance at 0.8550.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. UK Manufacturing PMI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed bearish around the bearish channel resistance area and has moved much lower. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. Price could stall or reverse bullish around the bearish channel support area and around the previous swing low at 1.0500.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Manufacturing PMI data is set to be released at 1500 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has moved below the recent horizontal consolidation. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price could move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 1.2395, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. Price may find support around the identified diagonal support area.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A UK Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. US Manufacturing PMI data is set to be released at 1500 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance again at the horizontal channel resistance and moved to the other side of the horizontal channel. The NZDUSD has since closed below the recent range. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that price may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal channel support at 0.7135, around the bearish moving averages and around the other identified horizontal levels.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Manufacturing PMI data is set to be released at 1500 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD moved above the recent consolidation resistance area and has since been very bullish. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous bullish channel resistance area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the USDCAD could continue to uptrend.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Manufacturing PMI data is set to be released at 1500 UTC today. A Bank of Canada Rate Announcement is scheduled at the same time. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed bullish around the bullish channel support area and has since moved much higher. The moving averages continue to cross frequently and provide no clear direction. From a technical view, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities during today’s trading sessions.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Manufacturing PMI data is set to be released at 1500 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has moved above the recent resistance areas and is looking bullish. The moving averages are about to cross bullish, signalling that price may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 112.85 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Manufacturing PMI data is set to be released at 1500 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has continued to retrace and be bearish. Price is finding support around the trend support area though, GOLD may now attempt a bullish move. Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the 61.8% Fib level. The moving averages are tightening, signalling no clear market direction.

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