Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 23, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy and indecisive but move within a bullish channel. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are crossing frequently and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance areas and around the moving averages. Price action is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the triangle support and resistance and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1600 UTC and a Reserve Bank of Australia Speech at 2230 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has been retracing some of the recent bearish move and has been bullish. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that price could move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the longer-term moving average and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price could stall and reverse bullish around the bearish channel support area and around the shorter-term moving average.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the bearish channel support area and has been bullish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening slightly, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the longer-term moving average and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price could stall or reverse bullish around the bearish channel support area.
The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1600 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the previous consolidation support area (now a trend support area) and is currently bullish. The GBPUSD continues to look choppy and indecisive though. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear trend direction. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.2510. Selling opportunities could exist if the horizontal resistance holds and if the GBPUSD moves below the trend support area.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1600 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD continues to range within a horizontal channel at 0.7135-0.7235. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel.
New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1600 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD continues to uptrend and is currently finding support around the trend support area. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal level at 1.3120.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1600 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed bearish around the bullish channel resistance area and is retracing (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the USDCHF could continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1600 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY is currently ranging within a horizontal channel at 113.00-113.75. Price is also down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current lack of trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1600 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to range within the horizontal channel at 1220.00-1242.50 and move sideways. The moving averages are crossing frequently and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price action has also formed a tightening consolidation pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance and if GOLD moves out of the pattern (break-out trade).
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