Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 22, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive but move within a bullish channel. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are crossing frequently and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance areas and around the moving averages.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Fed Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1900 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been very bearish and has moved much lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that the EURGBP could downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 0.8460 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. A UK Second Estimate on GDP is set to be announced at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price action is forming a lower swing low and the moving averages are bearish – the EURUSD may finally have some direction. Price has formed a potential bearish channel. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. The EURUSD could stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Fed Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1900 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD moved above the symmetrical triangle pattern and has since been bullish. The moving averages are crossing bullish, signalling that price could move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the previous consolidation resistance area (as support), around the previous consolidation support area and around the bullish moving averages.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A UK Second Estimate GDP figure is set to be announced at 0930 UTC today. US Fed Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1900 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD continues to range within a horizontal channel at 0.7135-0.7235. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Fed Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1900 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3120 and around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCAD could move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal level and around the bullish channel support area. Price could stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. Canadian Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. US Fed Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1900 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has moved much higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is forming a potential bullish channel and price is nearing the channel resistance area. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and if price moves above the channel resistance. The USDCHF could stall or reverse bearish around the resistance area though. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could move higher.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Fed Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1900 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has reversed bearish around the 50.0% Fib level. The moving averages are crossing frequently and moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the bearish channel resistance area. Buying opportunities may exist around the bearish channel support area and if price moves above the channel resistance.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Fed Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1900 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to range within the horizontal channel at 1220.00-1242.50 and move sideways. The moving averages are crossing frequently and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

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