Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 14, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD found support around the trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since been bullish. Price is ranging within a horizontal channel at 0.7610-0.7690. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. US PPI data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1500 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that price could continue to downtrend. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 0.8500.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. UK CPI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed bearish around the shorter-term moving average and the bearish channel resistance and has moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages continue to be bearish and are widening, signalling that the EURUSD could move lower. Price is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that the EURUSD could start retracing and be bullish. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance. Buying opportunities could exist if price moves above the bearish channel resistance.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US PPI data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1500 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified support and resistance areas.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. US PPI data is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1500 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the 23.6% Fib level and has moved lower. Price action has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the NZDUSD could continue to be bearish. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price could stall or reverse bullish around the bearish channel support area.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US PPI data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1500 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is at the bullish channel support area. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the USDCAD could move lower. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area. Selling opportunities could exist if price moves below the support area and around the bearish moving averages.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US PPI data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1500 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has found resistance around the bullish channel resistance area (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price could continue to move within the bullish channel. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area.

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swing Franc may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. US PPI data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1500 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price is looking a little choppy and indecisive. The USDJPY could range between the horizontal levels at 113.20 and 114.00. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels, if price moves out of the range (break-out trade) and around the moving averages. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that the USDJPY could move higher.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US PPI data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1500 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Potential horizontal channels exists at 1222.00-1235.00 and 1222.00-1242.50. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages.

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