Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 02, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the range resistance and has rallied higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the AUDUSD could continue to uptrend and be bullish. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7600 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP is starting to look a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways and providing no clear trend direction. Price may range within a potential horizontal channel at 0.8470-0.8630. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. UK Construction PMI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a BOE Inflation Report and Rate Announcement at 1200 UTC and a BOE Speech at 1230 UTC. There is also an ECB Speech at 1215 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the EURUSD could continue to move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.0770.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A ECB Speech is scheduled for 1215 UTC today. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and are widening but price action suggests that bullish momentum could be weakening and that price could soon retrace. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. UK Construction PMI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a BOE Inflation Report and Rate Announcement at 1200 UTC and a BOE Speech at 1230 UTC. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD found support around the bullish channel support area and is currently attempting a move higher. The moving averages continue to signal indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price may start ranging within a potential horizontal channel at 0.7230-0.7345 or attempt a bearish move. If the NZDUSD moves below the horizontal and bullish channel support areas, price may start down-trending.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently cut rates by 25 points, bringing their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average and trend resistance area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCAD could continue to move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and if price moves below the swing low at 1.2990. If the USDCAD moves above the trend resistance, price may start ranging.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF found resistance around the longer-term moving average and the previous horizontal support at 0.9960 and has since been bearish. Price continues to move within a bearish channel. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the horizontal resistance at 0.9960 and around the bearish channel resistance. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could continue to move lower.

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swing France may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY continues to look choppy and slightly indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Price may have formed a bearish channel. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area, around the horizontal resistance at 115.25-115.50 and if the USDJPY moves below the identified horizontal support and channel support.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1180.60-1218.40. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

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