Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 21, 2016
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has started retracing and has been bullish. The bearish moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, suggesting that the retracement could continue or that the AUDUSD could range. Selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and the identified horizontal resistance levels. A buying opportunity could exist around the previous swing low at 0.7225.
The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Presidential Election result may be a game-changer for the Australian Dollar though. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to lack market direction and look indecisive but recent price action has formed a bullish consolidation, suggesting that price could move higher. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and are widening. Buying opportunities could exist if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 0.8425, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the diagonal/trend support area.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed bullish around the previous swing low and is forming a potential double-bottom pattern (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are still bearish but they are tight, suggesting a potential upside shift in momentum. Buying opportunities could exist around the horizontal support at 1.0355 and if the EURUSD moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.0475. Price may stall or reverse around the potential bearish channel resistance or horizontal resistance.
The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD moved below the range support area and has been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 1.2380.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has started retracing and was bullish during yesterday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are still bearish but are beginning to tighten and move sideways, suggesting that the NZDUSD could retrace further. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance areas at 0.6935 and 0.6980.
New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1530 UTC today. This is followed by a New Zealand GDP figure at 2145 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD is moving within a horizontal channel (ranging). The moving averages confirm the current lack of direction – they are tightening and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price failed to move higher and is now ranging or forming a potential double-top price pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY failed to move higher and is now ranging or forming a potential double-top price pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD attempted a swing low during yesterday’s trading sessions but as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the move failed and price is forming a potential double-bottom price pattern. The moving averages confirm the lack of selling momentum – they have crossed bullish and are widening. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the potential bullish channel support area and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 1141.35.
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