Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 17, 2016
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved below the range support area and was bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are still bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could still move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous range support area.
The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Presidential Election result may be a game-changer for the Australian Dollar though. Fears over how a Trump led US will negatively impact the Australian economy are already showing. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. US CPI, Unemployment and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1500 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP is moving within a horizontal channel and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the lack of price direction – they are tight and also moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist off the channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. UK Retail Sales data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has moved below the previous horizontal support at 1.0710. The moving averages are still bearish but they are beginning to tighten and move sideways, suggesting that price could start retracing soon and be bullish. If price does start retracing, selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the identified horizontal resistance areas on the above chart.
The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD. US CPI, Unemployment and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1500 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD found resistance around the longer-term moving average and moved off the moving average as bearish. The GBPUSD is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing frequently and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the several identified horizontal support and resistance levels. If price moves below the horizontal support area at 1.2360, price may attempt a bearish move.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. UK Retail Sales data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today. US CPI, Unemployment and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1500 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bearish and moved lower during yesterday’s trading sessions. The bearish move has been quickly reversed and price is above one of the moving averages, suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. The moving averages confirm the weakening selling momentum – they are tightening and beginning to move sideways. Trading opportunities could exist off the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels on the above chart.
New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. US CPI, Unemployment and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1500 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has been bearish and price action has formed a short series of lower swing lows and highs. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3500. A selling opportunity could also exist if price moves below the horizontal support at 1.3410.
US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US could provide some weakness in the USD. Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. US CPI, Unemployment and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1500 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish but are beginning to move sideways, suggesting that buying momentum is weakening and that price could soon start retracing. If price does start retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the several identified horizontal support levels and around the longer-term moving average. A buying opportunity could also exist if price moves above the previous swing high at 1.0050.
US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the CHF (safe-haven currency). US CPI, Unemployment and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1500 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The moving averages are still bullish and are steady but price is looking over-extended and could be due a retracement. If the USDJPY does start retracing, buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal support levels.
The Bank of Japan have announced a slight hike in their rate, from -0.20% to -0.10%. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the JPY (safe-haven currency). US CPI, Unemployment and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1500 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD is looking indecisive and is lacking market direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and moving sideways. Price is moving within a horizontal channel (range), 1222.70-1.232.00. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
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