Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 15, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are bearish though, suggesting that price could move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the identified horizontal resistance levels and if price moves below the horizontal support at 0.7525.

The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Presidential Election result may be a game-changer for the Australian Dollar though. Fears over how a Trump led US will negatively impact the Australian economy are already showing. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. US Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price is moving within a horizontal channel (ranging), 0.8580-0.8640. The overall trend is down and the moving averages are bearish, suggesting that price could break to the downside. Selling opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price closes below the range support. If price breaks to the upside of the horizontal channel, selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. UK CPI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a UK Inflation Report at 1000 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD was bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions and has moved lower. Price is now retracing and looking bullish. The moving averages are still bearish, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the identified horizontal resistance levels and around the trend resistance area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD. US Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and could cross again during today’s trading sessions. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal support and resistance levels.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. UK CPI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a UK Inflation Report at 1000 UTC. US Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has started retracing and has been bullish. The moving averages are still bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt a move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the identified horizontal resistance levels, around any of the key Fib levels and if price moves below the previous swing low at 0.7070.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. US Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a New Zealand GDT Price Index figure around 1430-1530 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD is retracing some of the recent rally. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may attempt a push higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the horizontal resistance turned support at 1.3500 and around any of the key Fib levels. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the previous swing high at 1.3580.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US could provide some weakness in the USD. Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. US Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that price could still move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the several identified horizontal support levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the CHF (safe-haven currency). US Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY moved higher and was bullish during yesterday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could still move higher. Price is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that price may soon start retracing. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the identified horizontal support levels.

The Bank of Japan have announced a slight hike in their rate, from -0.20% to -0.10%. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the JPY (safe-haven currency). US Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD is moving within a horizontal channel and is ranging. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could break to the downside of the channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, a bullish move may reverse around the longer-term moving average or around one of the key Fib levels.

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