Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 14, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to look choppy but recent price action has been bearish. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and are widening. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the identified horizontal resistance levels and if price moves below the horizontal support at 0.7530. Price is currently moving within a tight range (0.7535- 0.7555), trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Presidential Election result may be a game-changer for the Australian Dollar though. Fears over how a Trump led US will negatively impact the Australian economy are already showing. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been bearish and has moved lower. The moving averages continue to be bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could move lower. Price may be forming a double-bottom pattern though and price could retrace before attempting a move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and if price moves below the horizontal support at 0.8585. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support area.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. There is a ECB Speech at 1500 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bearish. The moving averages are still bearish and are widening, suggesting that the EURUSD could move lower. If price pulls-back before attempting a move lower, selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the identified horizontal resistance levels and around the trend resistance area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD. There is a ECB Speech at 1500 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD moved higher during Friday’s trading sessions but price quickly reversed and has since been bearish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price may attempt another upside move. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the clear horizontal resistance turned support at 1.2540. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the previous swing high at 1.2655.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been very bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could still move lower. Price is looking a little over-extended though, so the NZDUSD may retrace before attempting another bearish move. Selling opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal resistance levels, around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD is bullish and has been pushing higher. The moving averages confirm the bullish momentum – they are bullish and are widening. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels (now potential support) at 1.3500 and 1.3515 and around the bullish moving averages.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US could provide some weakness in the USD. Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to look a little choppy but recent price action has been bullish. The moving averages confirm the recent buying momentum – they are bullish and are widening. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified horizontal support levels. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9945.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the CHF (safe-haven currency). There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY found support and has moved much higher. The moving averages continue to be very bullish and are still widening, suggesting that price could still move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the identified horizontal support levels on the above chart.

The Bank of Japan have announced a slight hike in their rate, from -0.20% to -0.10%. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the JPY (safe-haven currency). There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price moved below the range support area and has since been very bearish. The moving averages confirm the selling momentum – they are bearish and are widening. If price retraces during today’s trading sessions, selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous range support.

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