Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Chart – August 12, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD was bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions. Price is currently finding support around the longer-term moving average but price has moved and closed below the trend support area and the bullish moving averages are starting to lose their bullish direction – all suggesting that the bearish run could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the newly formed trend resistance area.

The Bank of Australia have decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50% – this as well as other poor economic data has contributed to some weakness in the Australian Dollar. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. US Retail Sales and PPI data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Preliminary Consumer Sentiment data will follow at 1400 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP was initially bullish during yesterday’s trading sessions but reversed at the channel resistance area (identified in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since been bearish. Price is currently finding support around the shorter-term moving average and could move higher in today’s trading sessions. The moving averages confirm this, they continue to be bullish and are showing no sign of weakness. If the dynamic support of the shorter-term moving average does not hold, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the longer-term moving average.

As expected, the Bank of England have cut rates and have also increased their QE program. This has provided weakness for the GBP. Most experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken long-term. The future of the Euro is very unclear at this point. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price found support around the shorter-term moving average during yesterday’s trading sessions but has since moved lower. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that price may attempt a bullish move to the trend resistance area. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the trend support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the trend resistance area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. The EURUSD had been rallying since the Fed announcement but is currently retracing the bullish move after positive US employment related data. Price may now have some clear price direction. Retail Sales and PPI data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Preliminary Consumer Sentiment data will follow at 1400 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD was bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions and has now formed some clear lower lows and lower highs. The moving averages continue to be bearish and are starting to widen again – suggesting that the downtrend could continue. If price is initially bullish before moving lower, selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The Bank of England have cut rates as expected and have also increased their QE program. This has provided weakness for the GBP. Most experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken long-term. Retail Sales and PPI data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Preliminary Consumer Sentiment data will follow at 1400 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has formed a clear swing higher and is currently retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the longer-term moving average and around the previous trend resistance area (now support).

Positive US Employment related data has given strength to the US Dollar. The economy of New Zealand continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have lowered the official rate to 2.00%. The NZD gained strength and continues to seem steady even with this potential weakening news. Retail Sales and PPI data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Preliminary Consumer Sentiment data will follow at 1400 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price moved below the consolidation support area during yesterday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that a downside move could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous consolidation support, around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

Positive US Employment related data has given strength to the US Dollar. Retail Sales and PPI data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Preliminary Consumer Sentiment data will follow at 1400 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The overall trend is bearish on USDCHF. The moving averages recently crossed bearish and price has formed a long-term trend resistance area – both suggesting that price could soon attempt a move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

Positive US Employment related data has given strength to the US Dollar. Retail Sales and PPI data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Preliminary Consumer Sentiment data will follow at 1400 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s trading analysis, the USDJPY has come off the consolidation support area and is attempting a move to the consolidation resistance area. The moving averages continue to lack direction, confirming that price is consolidating and is indecisive. Potential trading opportunities could exist as price moves to and from the consolidation resistance and consolidation support. A buying opportunity could exist if price moves above the consolidation resistance area.

Positive US Employment related data has given strength to the US Dollar. The recent Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and announcement from the BOJ has provided some strength to the Yen – most experts were expecting a greater stimulus package. Retail Sales and PPI data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Preliminary Consumer Sentiment data will follow at 1400 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to move within the tightening consolidation pattern and is currently finding support around the consolidation support area (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages continue to lack direction, confirming that price is consolidating and is indecisive. Potential trading opportunities could exist as price moves to and from the consolidation support and consolidation resistance. A selling opportunity could exist if price moves below the consolidation support area.

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