Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 22, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Charts

Price managed to move and close higher in yesterday’s trading sessions, forming a higher swing high. The AUDUSD is now looking bearish and forming a tight head and shoulder pattern. This could signal that price is starting a retracement and that we may see a bearish move lower before price attempts another swing high. If price does retrace, today’s trading sessions may provide some short-term selling opportunities. Longer-term buying opportunities may exist at the previous resistance (now support) at 0.7400 and at the dynamic support of the bullish moving averages.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some big moves higher on AUDUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. These events may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP continues to move lower as the GBP strengthens. There has been a large bearish move since the start of the trading week. The move does not look over-extended though, so we may see price continue to move lower in today’s trading sessions. If price starts retracing and the market is bullish, selling opportunities could present themselves at the previous support level (now resistance) of 0.7780, at the 23.6% and 38.2% (0.7735 & 0.7785) Fib levels and at the bearish moving averages.

The GBP has been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. Recent poll results suggest that ‘Remain’ is back in the lead, the GBP has consequently been strengthening. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum will likely impact the EURGBP greatly. If the UK remain in the EU, the GBP is very likely to strengthen. If the UK leave the EU, the GBP is very likely to weaken. The EURGBP is likely to be very volatile for the rest of this week.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The moving averages continue to be bullish but, as mentioned in Monday’s chart analysis, price is looking choppy and perhaps even indecisive. A potential trend line resistance has formed and is currently sitting at the 1.1360 area. A potential trend line support has formed also, this is currently sitting at the 1.1160 area. We may see price move between these 2 areas and continue to consolidate.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves higher on EURUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. These events may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD was looking over-extended – price has consequently retraced since then. Price is currently forming a head and shoulder pattern, suggesting that price may retrace further. If price does retrace further before moving higher, there could be some short-term short opportunities as well as longer-term long opportunities at the 23.6% fib level (1.4600), the 38.2% fib level (1.4490) and the moving averages.

The GBP has been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. Recent poll results suggest that ‘Remain’ is back in the lead, the GBP has consequently been strengthening. The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. These events may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum will likely impact the GBPUSD greatly – expect a lot of volatility over the next few days. If the UK remain in the EU, the GBP is very likely to strengthen. If the UK leave the EU, the GBP is very likely to weaken.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD is in a clear and confirmed uptrend. As mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed to the upside of the tight consolidation and moved higher – stalling at the identified channel resistance and eventually forming a higher swing high. Price has since found support at one of the moving averages and continues to be bullish. If price pulls back in today’s trading sessions, there could be buying opportunities at the dynamic support of either of the bullish moving averages and around the previous resistance (now support) at 0.7080.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month and the positive New Zealand dollar interest rate release, we may see some big moves higher on NZDUSD. From a fundamental view, this chart and pair is of high interest. The driving force for this pair is positive NZD news against a hesitant USD. The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. These events may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD is moving lower after the strong bullish retracement. The moving averages crossed bearish and but seem to be struggling to widen any further – suggesting that price could be struggling to move any lower. Due to the strength of the recent retracement, it could be that there is not enough bearish momentum to make a swing lower. We may see price form a large double bottom price pattern or start to rally and create a higher high. Overall, the USDCAD currency pair seems a little indecisive but a bullish move higher seems more likely than a bearish move lower.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves lower on USDCAD. With recent positive economic figures from Canada and the partial recovery in the oil markets, the Canadian dollar is set to strengthen. Taking all of this into consideration, the USDCAD may present some very profitable selling opportunities. The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. These events may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF continues to range (as mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is moving sideways between the horizontal support at 0.9580 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9680. It has also formed a 2nd tighter channel with the horizontal resistance at 0.9630. From a technical view, it’s a matter of waiting for a potential breakout trade. Currently, the moving averages are bearish and price is making lower highs, suggesting that a downside break is more likely than a break to the upside.

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. These events may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As predicted in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has formed a sideways channel and is consolidating between the channel support at 103.70 and the channel resistance at 104.85. The moving averages have crossed bullish and price action is also looking bullish (a wide double bottom pattern and potential trend support line). This suggests that there is a good chance that the USDJPY may break to the upside and move higher.

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. These events may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD closed below the clear support at 1276.85 and has moved strongly lower. Potential selling opportunities exist at the previous clear support level (now resistance), at the bearish moving averages and at the bearish trend line resistance (currently sitting at 1282.85). The bearish moving averages are widening, suggesting that a downside move will likely continue.

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